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India’s Antifragile Moment Calls – Arindam Mukherjee

The recent development in Europe has a couple of points for New Delhi. Old Eagle is apparently running high on an agenda to destabilize parts of East Europe – particularly those bordering Russia – picking up from where things were before 2016 (Donald bloody Duck. Inactive af.). Georgia’s been a gone case since 2008, and if you recollect, Putin had to intervene (rather reactively, if I may add) at a point and kick their ass to tame their war dance in order to try and drill some senses. Russophobia is still rampant among the mainstream media even though it is in Georgia’s interest to balance their antics. It pays to try and maintain a decent relationship with their massive-in-hydrocarbon-and-regional-economy neighbour. Then again, if you look at Ukraine, you wonder is it really worth the effort? The mess there which is largely the handiwork of Uncle and his European chappus persists till date. So Ukraine’s current leadership thought it would be prudent to balance out a little. So he was ok to maintain a semi-working relation with Russia. As a result, he is having a difficult time to see some light at the end of the tunnel. Then comes Belarus and Lukashenko. Luka won an election fair and square. He had about 80% vote. He is pro-Russia. So first they tried to undermine his authority and organized sporadic protests. When Luka said Fuckoff-I-aint-talking-to-the-opposition, they have gotten to hustle a colour-game in there this month. Keep a watch.  

There is a pattern that none seem too keen to investigate. The foreign funded, fat-cat NGOs raise the noise level about this or that abuse (there are many issues, and a new issue, like a new gender, gets added every week); a section of the corporate media follows cue – the more the incumbent govt is opposed to the diktats of a section of global elites, the higher the number of media houses’ who jump into the villainization bandwagon. This soon spreads to the SMUJ (Social Media’s Useful Jokers) army; ‘influencers’ as they call themselves; and soon enough some money also trickles down to the lowly feet-on-streets. They dutifully assemble here and there, and on a bad day get their asses handed out by the law enforcement.

But while the pattern is there, I think I can understand why the investigative scribes might not want to get into the hassle. First off, ‘investigative journalist’ is an endangered species. The ones that survive realize there is little point in proving with evidence that ‘”x’ sends money to ‘y’ to persuade ‘z’ to lend his ass to the law enforcement.”. Majority media outlet between Canberra to Canada (along the longer, land route) have no interest in pushing for such pieces. Yes, there could be some academic interest there for social psychologists about how a large or a small section of a population nurture a fetish for BDSM in public places. There could also be some curiosity to learn about the tools these NGOs use to identify and recruit the guys with such sexual fantasies. And that’d be all. Definitely not enough for an intelligent scribe. If he is smart to understand the pattern, then he also understands that a government with a well-laid financial infrastructure already knows what he guesses. He might do better to ask what stops the governments from choking the fund flow, and the free travel. But an intelligent scribe knows that the stories that are gonna continue feeding him have their origins and sustenance in celebrity wardrobe malfunctions and costly divorces.

Anyway, what happens after these protesters (read ‘rioters’) get their asses handed out by the police? On the surface, and politically, it is usually anybody’s game from there. It could morph and become an absolute catastrophe like the slave-trading society that Libya is now. It could result in a bloody stalemate like Syria and displace and kill millions. It could fall flat like it has, as of now, in India. The real game isn’t that. The real game is to kill the economy. It doesn’t matter who leads/rules/serves, whether he is elected by people, anointed by NGOs, is Heil Hitler, or Miss Popular. If recent history has taught us anything (and that’s why I started by highlighting East Europe) it is that this orchestration will keep coming in waves, till one of them (or their cumulative total) finally cracks the economy up. [Moral: if you run an economy that’s remotely capable of thinking on its own or performing fine on its own, then you are in deep shit].

Now let us look at how this adds up. Recent development? At the one end you have the Old Eagle, who is so excited to meet India in the Quad Meet that he can barely sleep in the nights. At the other end you have Soros and his Cultural Marxists (could be name for a Europop band) who keep slow-releasing pick-a-bill-and-protest chaos. Like pros.

What’s the real issue here? On the off-chance that Indo-Chinese relations pick up again (look for the recent Chinese investment news) in near future, then the Europop band will take charge. If not, then Quad it is. So, it is ‘be our bitch in Quad, or we will have another agitation’ game. Or it could be, be our bitch and we continue agitations any way to keep you in check.

Want another angle of view? Across the other side of Asia – Uncle suddenly wants India to be present in an indirect Afghan talks. The idea is of course to get Delhi to convince Ghani to share power. New Delhi has good influence on the man. So, Pakistan has been prodded to behave for the time being. Hence all the good news that you read. The rest – I believe you can understand the pattern now – is the same game of comply-or-else.    

I wonder about Nick Taleb’s Antifragile (that’s why the top image actually). Why cant India gain from this chaos? I mean there could be SOME leverages that we can use to be a sort of Turkey in south Asia or Indian Ocean?

But what do I know.

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