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The Old Eagle Begins Rolling – Arindam Mukherjee

Old Eagle is rambling. And striking rockets here and there.  

Whats he saying? I have spent more time romancing Xi than anyone in this world… I love it when the Chinese trains run at 225 mph… I like to drink wine warm these days… U uh… your wife and children – I gotta sniff them…. We need to bring high paying job to America. Construction, manufacturing… hmmm… I keep going over this Barzini business… Fredo… uhh…. Donald, was weak… I never wanted this for you; I have worked for 50 years to see the Lotus bloom…

China, seeing through this colloid is hopeful about a reset. From a position of strength, given the fact that they have been clear about where exactly they expect the Eagle to fall in line: Hong Kong, and Taiwan.

Iran too, is seeing through this incoherence. First they messed up with that Korean tanker, then they drove rockets on American forces. One could think that this isn’t a good move at this point and all, given that he could be old and all, but he isn’t some Udtaa Punjab genjedi, and he is trying to get Iran back in their folds and away from Putin.

What if, Iran DOESN’T WANT to get it going with Old Eagle? There is this assumption on our part while evaluating these bits of events, and that is Uncle is the Lord and Master and only a Russia or a China could say ‘no’ to him. Bad habit, but that’s how it is: always squint at it the way Uncle would.

Thing is, Eagle called Iran to the JCP table BEFORE ending those sanctions. So, Iran said sorry; not happening. Relook at your options and we might rethink.

Iran, following the sanctions has opened couple of impressive lines with Russia and China. This has seen them through their dry phase; they have improvised, adapted. Though a weaker comparison, nonetheless, across the Atlantic, France and Macron (making right noises and movements to match them up) is showing the will to think with their brains. EU business lobby flirting a little with China and Russia is showing its promiscuous nature. And UK, Australia, Spain, France have decided to continue exporting weapons to KSA despite Uncle withdrawing his ‘support’.

The world has changed a bit. Old Eagle might want a reset. But there’s uncertainty there. Barzini would be shot dead on the stairs, yes; but beloved little Michael would eventually lead to the destruction of the Corleone Family.    

Talking about the Yemen affair, Eagle’s ending of support to the KSA led offensive thus doesn’t amount to much as long as UK, France doesn’t toe the line. “Ending US support won’t automatically mean an end to the war, at all. There is a really fine balance to be struck here, in finding a way to end the war that armed, political factions, local groups and civil society can buy into. Not easy at all,” says Peter Salisbury, senior Yemen analyst at Crisis Group… it would be good optics for the Eagle, since this was one of his poll promises. And since it wouldn’t count to much, KSA is not too worried at this point. ‘Ending support’ is vague; bombing Iran bases in Syria is not. Who gains?

Yes, it would be good to remember that Uncle, and by extension the Old Eagle doesn’t like the potential regional assertion of KSA-UAE-Israel lobby that Donald Duck helped create. KSA bullying the entire non-Muslim world with Wahhabism was an okay arrangement from 70s till the 20s. BECAUSE? They did that staying under Uncle’s umbrella. And now they are trying to create an umbrella OF THEIR OWN!  With Israel! [Note the racism: UK, Australia can take decisions, but KSA??] This is like Fredo can be weak and I can send him to Mo Greene even at the cost of humiliation of the Family, but Tessio can’t double cross me. Hence? Release the Khassogi docs.

Would Eagle be taking the family, or just MBS? If you bet on the latter, then let me tell you that MBS is the one that’s actively migrating to alternate energy resources; something that Eagle holds close to his heart (I guess he sniffed that Greta girl). So it may not be that uncomplicated. Besides, if you follow the recent Lockheed Martin & KSA contract, you would know that the MI Complex has the bandwidth to turn Old Eagle into a Donald Duck if he crosses the line.

More later.

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