If new year symbolisms are anything to go by, then I think I am in for a good time. Sailing through essays/videos of Jordan Peterson, Ben Shapiro, Yuval Harari, Nick Taleb, Salman Rushdie – it has been a thoroughly enjoyable first few days of political incorrectness this 2019. Thanks Omer and the rest of the gang for constant updates on these great guys. Anyway, my weekly posts have seldom been about my personal preferences or missions, so here we go:

Uncle Scrooge is back to being ‘happy’ with Imran Pindi Khan. For delivering the Taliban to the UAE/KSA manned negotiations. He has also made a fair mockery of Modi and India in that same speech. You must have read all about it by now. Afghan Parliament building morphs into a library and so on (the meme above looks quite interesting, innit?). Funny; takes me back to R-Day invites, Quad-dreams, Pivot-Asia and song and dance about being ‘strategic partners’. (Also makes me wonder how every firangi leader making geopolitical observations about southwest Asia, invariably pulls one – India or Pakistan – the moment the other’s mentioned.)

Is Scrooge aware that 2019 may not go very smooth for Modi?

Here’s what I know. Their lover’s spat looks over, and, Uncle and Pindi are back to being geostrategic partners. As far as New Delhi goes… could be Modi’s diminishing prospects of 2019… could be de-escalation of tensions with China… could also be the fact that the Chabahar port affair is up and running, the issue of importing oil using INR already sorted, and Iranian investment opportunity in India, and vice versa are also getting smoothened…. All this, while EU – out of respect/fear/laziness/whatever is still grappling on how to address the Iran Dilemma. Could well be that this resolve has miffed Scrooge a little. Or a lot. India after Vijay Gokhale has suddenly gone on an overdrive in demonstrating its support for a multipolar world.

Back to Pakistan and uncle; how’d this renewed alliance fare for Pakistan? Quite well, methinks. Pindi is superb in tightrope walking. When you have spent lion’s share of your existence living off others’ money – you have to be good in that kind of stunt. If anyone can balance the begging bowl between China and Uncle, Rawalpindi is who I would bet on.

As far as the Afghan endgame is concerned, one has to admit that since the Talib-precondition is that uncle minimizes his military presence, it can initiate only from there. Those guys officially control 50% of the country. Unofficially, I think it’d be a lot more than that. Uncle-sons’ “paid vacation in a foreign land” usually has that kinda effect. Each such vacation of theirs thrusts greatness upon this or that thug. So those that are a little curious about the regional powers like Iran, China or Russia and their impression on active engagement with the Taliban need to mark that that would come into play a while later – once the peace process is initiated.  Like the way Iran China or Russia cannot force uncle to leave, the same way uncle – once gone – cannot physically exist in Asia to sort out Afghan engagement in the long run. So, in order of things, this seems to be going the right way as of now.

Of course, should you want to spice it up a little, you can consider the fact that KSA backs ISIL – who are there in Afghanistan, and Pindi backs Talibans – who are there too. KSA pays Pindi.  China pays Pindi too. China and Russia prefer Taliban, Ghani and a settlement along that line. Who or what would KSA and Old Uncle prefer? There is a lot of money exchanging hands there after all. Spicy enough?

Across other end of Asia – in Syria – the Kurds, after quickly realizing the untrustworthy nature of uncle, have pledged allegiance with Assad (hehehahahahouuu!) to keep Sultan off their soil. So Assad’s guys marched into Manbij a couple of days ago and hoisted the Syrian flag. And with that, a common assumption till mid-2018, among many of us – that Syria’s gonna get balkanized, come what may – looks happily wrong. You have Uncle Scrooge to thank for that. Vacating the northern half of Syria was never a part of the deal. But then, Uncle Scrooge’s phenomenal career has hinged on unpredictability. And the Kurds, after realizing that they’d be in for a raw deal were they to put their life in the hands of uncle and trust him with that, quickly got Russia to mediate between them and Assad. The result is Manbij has Syrian flag flying these days. 

What happens to the rest of the uncle-controlled territory? Is Turkey eyeing them? Has there been a deal made between Sultan and uncle? No idea. Assad in Manbij is perhaps to pre-empt that. If Ankara sends the army, that has to be through Manbij. The million dollar question here is, Would Sultan cross Putin? No straight answers. Putin could hold the territorial integrity of Syria and the welfare of the Kurds more important than Sultan’s ambitions. Putin could hold prying away of a NATO member like Turkey into his folds more important than the fate of the Kurds.

Shall keep you posted.