Putin & The Middle Eastern Road Ahead

Middle East used to be the USA’s playground since they managed to oust USSR from there in the 70s. It continued like that for 50 years or so. Then in September 2015, Russia intervened in Syria. Out of two compulsions primarily: One, to keep its neighbourhood and its own distal territories in the Caucasus safe from CIA backed Islamic fundamentalism. And two, to cut the prospects of Qatar gaining access to Syrian territory for a gas pipeline to West Europe, thus cutting into Russian profits. A distant third point could be that Syria had good relations with Russia — but then, so did Libya. So anyway, in a few months, this move proved to be quite decisive. Especially from Old Uncle’s standpoint of shrinking global geography and resources available for grabbing, Putin initiated a grey, transitory phase as far as the balance of power of the Middle East is concerned.

The signs are clear. First, those strikes on ISIL bases that left every watcher shocked for words. A couple of months down, Sultan shot a Russian Su-24 down; and had to apologize, post a string of Russian sanctions. Albeit a different geography, one can’t forget Crimea either. As symbolisms go, these vibrate so much that you can almost hear their sound. Imagine, as a distant conflict spectator, you’ve been watching the Arab Spring: the rise, the stagnation, the hijack, the advent of Islamic fundamentalists (AQAP), Libya quickly disintegrate as Qaddafi gets shot in the head… as you gradually resign to that feeling lurking somewhere that this is how it always ends, as NGOs march against Assad and suddenly there are these black-masked guys in Toyota pick-ups that are beheading people in cold blood and the mighty USA — that can spot a needle in a 100 tonne haystack cant, for years together, with all their superpower technology, locate these guys’ movement or their bases, so they turn to fight Assad instead… and you slowly discover the fact that this is one mega scam that’s on and the only way this could end is when Assad is shot in his head like Qaddafi… 
Then… Bang…!! Fighter planes fly in from somewhere. They hammer those terrorists and their supply routes, show no signs of stopping. Suddenly one of the chief patrons of the terrorists — who was buying oil from them all along — resigns and switches sides. The planes are joined by boots on ground that start regaining lost ground inch by inch. The leader and the government army that was on the verge of a total collapse regroup and start fighting back. The vulture-gang that was waiting by the side-lines to carve and devour Syria after Assad, grudgingly begin scattering away. Some of them try to mount a few surprises and quickly burn their wings. Uncle — with his signature move messed up — is in disarray. 
As visuals go, this is like using a shot-gun in those fake wrestling matches.

Sultan quickly apologized after the sanctions, switched into more neutral colour, and while acknowledging Russia as the new alpha-dog, subtly communicated the inevitability of geography that is Turkey, in the regional equation. And Iran joining hands with Syria brought light to an incredible alliance — one that hinged entirely on Putin and Russia.

Frankly, this is not as simple as I write. For peasants like us who cannot handle family relations, this is more than rocket science to be honest. For those that are interested, look into the points of differences between Iran and Turkey, or Turkey and Syria, if you can. Surf through a bit of history and geopolitics. The differences are many; some are even existential. To get those very guys stand side by side, keep safe distances from each other, and yet converge on a common point is like harnessing those velociraptors in that movie Jurassic World. So when Sultan attacks the Kurdish positions in Syria, I have no clue on the kind of leash Putin uses to keep him from eating into Syrian territories, and in the same way I would not hazard a guess about how many man-years, hair, calories, or brain-cells have Putin and his crew spent in maintaining this kind of a crazy diplomatic relation — because this is simply beyond me.
It is working. Not brilliantly, but this is perhaps the best result under the given circumstances. And more than that, this signals that grey transitory phase that I was talking about.

Why grey? Because though Uncle’s plans are in disarray and though Russian diplomacy is making a valiant effort to comeback to the heart of the Middle East, no one knows for sure how this is going to pan out.

Uncle has failed. Quite miserably so far if I may add. They had this entire territory to themselves since I was born. That is a good amount of time actually. And during this time, they have — to borrow from a Hindi expression — screwed both the mom and sister of diplomacy. They have made it almost impossible for Palestine, they have messed it up for Lebanon… and if I were to sound less repetitive and hit home straight: Other than the GCC cartel and Israel — they have messed it up for everyone else in the 22 countries-strong Middle East & North Africa region. And Russia is trying to just capitalize on this HUGE void.

In terms of ‘things to do’, it is an impressive list of a whole host of nations to sort out — both in their internal and external relations. It also involves fitting to size of a few nations, like Turkey, or even KSA. And since most of us know about the recent developments when it concerns Turkey, you can sample another extremely sensitive escalation: Lebanon and Israel, where Putin is trying really hard.

When Kissinger — the last of the modern American diplomat worth speaking of — pulled the carpet from under the feet of the USSR which made the Soviets redundant in the Middle East and shrunk the Israel-Arab conflict and settlement issue into every champagne-socialist’s lapdog, Israel had it all, and exactly the way they wanted. Till 2015-end. And today, the Israel-Lebanon conflict has moved on to another plane.

With the KSA-stooge that was at the helm of things there now gone, Russia has approached Lebanon for an elaborate security cooperation. Formalized, that would boost defence/deterrence capability of Lebanon manifolds. These might include joint exercises, usage of bases and so on. There is this issue of Lebanese energy resources too that Russia wants to keep stabilized (read, under its control). But helping support the legitimate government is a far cry from staging coups or slipping in terrorists. Incidentally, this used to be the way the world operated during the more ‘decent’past, till Uncle started outsourcing of wars.

What would a security treaty ensue? It would balance the scales in favour of Lebanon in the longer run. Would that be really good? Should be, because Lebanon never had territorial ambitions like Israel. A more assertive Lebanon would definitely be good news when it comes to regional stability. On the other hand, you have also this to understand that Israel’s is not a war-economy like Uncle’s. They don’t fight for the sake of running their country (which for some comprise only of feeding the bankers). They have enough tech-innovation and other working good for themselves to keep fighting endless wars like Uncle. Lebanon is something that they consider an unfinished business extension of Palestine. An avoidance of a full-scale conflict between these two could result only when the scale is balanced. For the rest of the world, it’d be good to see some semblance of quiet there. And Russia is trying to achieve just that.

As a young boy, when I was first learning to untie a complicated knot, I was instructed to always attack the dead-centre, to try and untie the middle one. That did the trick always. Putin is probably trying just that by keeping both Lebanon and Israel shielded from each other. And if this plan succeeds then as the one and only negotiator and mediator between Hezbollah/Iran/Lebanon and Israel and Turkey, Russia would have the potential of reaching levels never reached before in the Middle East.

Not that this would go smooth. Israel for example, all things considered, has an image to keep. So they have flown fighters and have bombed some areas. Putin has allowed them that. Uncle has recently conducted air-strikes that may have killed Russian contractors. There have been questions, allegations, doubts about Russia’s capabilities. I can understand those. We have been living under a bad sky for a really long span where the only one way to prove your superiority has been to march tanks and guns and levelling everything to ground with complete disregard for law, lives, environment etc. So it is really difficult to believe in someone’s ‘power’ when all his moves are calculated to the maximum detail. When you have been listening to Pantera/Megadeth for too long, the subtleties of Bhimsen Joshi doesn’t appeal.

What gets lost in this entire noise-fest is that brute power doesn’t mean superior diplomacy. In fact, it means just the opposite of that. It requires sophistication and intelligence to exercise restraint and make the right moves inside the ring. Right from the basics of martial art to a round of chess, the phrase that Jeffrey Archer immortalized is, ‘Don’t get mean; get even’.

So let us hope that a new, assertive Russia makes it count. Even if you don’t spare a thought about economic/religious/political hang-ups and conflicts, I suppose you do care about a less noisy world. The only way to achieve that is to distribute balance. Whoever manages that would perhaps stall the coming of ‘the end’ for some more time.