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Heartland Updates, Nov 3 - Arindam Mukherjee

South Asia

India and Sri Lanka are in a jammer. You must have heard stories of the spurned lover harassing his/her ex-beau, unable to come to terms with reality. That moment where both are in trouble; one can’t let go, and the other can’t let stay? It is kind of like that.

There are three characters from Sri Lanka. Sirisena. Wickremasinghe. Rajapaksa. And they have a complex love-hate relation between them. India – as is customary – tried to woo one with some Uncle help. You all know of course, when Uncle’s think-tanks think, car bombs explode here and there. So, because Rajapaksa was a China ‘cheerleader’, India and Uncle played catalyst to throw him off-balance. Some deal was patched between Wickremasinghe and Siri, and Sirisena became the President.

All was good till here. Now in an internal turn of events, Raja and Siri – Guru and Shishya-turned-conspirator-turned-Shishya – have patched up and are up to something. New Delhi, dipped in Uncle brand arrogance, has no clue about it. Personally, even if they had, it would be of little use because even after this chessboard smug of facilitating a regime change (2015) to kick out a China cheerleader, not a single strategically important project has come India’s way, and China has continued funding and aiding stuff in the island. Why, don’t ask me.

So now India is trying to woo Wickrema – who is nothing without one of the other two. And given New Delhi’s reputation in this particular case, I doubt Wickrema would want to have to do anything with them right now. His salvation lies in the Buddhist Land. Unless he wants to become the President some time. And is willing to pay for that.

 

EU

As far as the political fallout for entertaining Middle East refugees at the cost of near-complete disregard for the popular sentiment/fear of the citizenry is concerned, something rather symbolic transpired earlier this week when Merkel – the representative of equilibrium and solidity loving Germans – lost a parliamentary voting session.

This, if a little unsettling for many, is a proof that there lies a limit, and a significance resentment to Uncle’s policy of using mainland Europe as the loo. I can’t see any other reason frankly. Merkel has been the most successful leaders in EU. She catalysed a robust economy for her country. Kept unemployment record low. Managed to criss-cross between Ukraine and Russia to manage her relations across both sides kind of well at a time when there is a full scale conflict going on. Many considered her to be one last and one big hope against the Trumpian Wave that is gradually taking over the developed world: as someone who best represented the core European and thus Western values. And then this.

So ask me, and I would say that this shit began the moment this Uncle-loo mechanism kickstarted as Syria descended into chaos, and apart from the bona fide refugees, opportunists from Pakistan and Afghanistan or other parts of Africa or the Middle East started pouring into Europe; every joker pretending to be a poor Syrian. As a result, the old lady received her first surprise upper-cut sometime in 2017 when her party performed poorly. She had to patch up an alliance which came to be known as the “Jamaican Coalition”. People thought she would pull through; she was a seasoned boxer.

Doesn’t look like that now.  

As the AfD now stands in Germany, so stands Geert Wilders in the Netherlands, and Marine Le Pen in France: this close to the top and with the message that “we are no Islamic nations”. To Victoria ‘Fuck the EU’ Nuland produced Ukraine civil war, Scrooge produced sanctions that affect EU trading with China or Russia, West-South austerity divide, and terrorism-crime following the return of ISIL, this new addition of tribal instincts to ‘take back’ what is rightfully European joins in. If this gets nasty (and it would), simply blame Uncle.

My only worry is that Germany and France were off-late showing some spunk in their dealings with Russia (refer to the recently concluded Istanbul Summit) and outside the influence of Uncle. That considering, Merkel should have stayed a little longer: Europe wobbling is bad juju. You all know that.

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