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Gulf and other updates

When the Easter Attacks took place, there were some queries about the rationale of it. Different people with different ideologies and thus different reasons were all over the web – from social media to online news. Some were pretty serious; and some – an interesting bunch actually comprising mostly of self-loathing Indians – turned international political analysts overnight only to blame New Delhi for the attacks. And this innovative brilliance persisted even when local Lankan radicals and their organization got tracked (Oh! New Delhi must have mobilized them!), or when IS Khorasan declared that it was their brainchild (See? Delhi is happy to let ISIS steal their thunder!)

I remember discussing WHO COULD HAVE DONE with an old friend. That was fresh after the massacre. I had said that uncle could no longer depend on Taliban because there were now too many stakeholders in the equation. That left him with IS and AQ. AQ is down. Not out, but down. That left IS. But naturally.

He wasn’t convinced. As to the question of WHY, my opinion was that uncle wanted to throw a spanner in Chinese plans. Well what do you know. He wasn’t convinced on that too.

And now, Wickremasinghe just signed a deal with Millennium Challenge Corporation of the USA in aftermath of the Easter Attack. This MCC/Lanka deal has the potential to be a gamechanger. http://www.lankaweb.com/news/items/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/tennaR.jpg has a couple of cool Lankan maps, on how in the long run this could affect Sri Lanka. They have some write-up there too; an interesting read once you overlook the language.

Alright. That was as far as the Easter hangover was concerned. Now let’s check what Old Uncle has been up to.

Gulf of Hormuz. Shit is on the build guys. Oil tankers have apparently been messed with, been set on fire, and so on. Two of them tankers are KSA’s property. Saudi is crying ‘sabotage! sabotage!’ Quite noisy there now. But here is the funny part: A prominent newspaper carried out a small couple of lines on how Iran could target KSA ships – as speculated by a journalist named Barak Ravid. That was May 9. The attacks came on May 13.

Cui bono?

Let’s not make this piece lengthier than absolutely needed; let’s hip-shoot. My first and only guess is that the man with the fat white moustache is trying to push our Uncle Scrooge into a zone where Scrooge begins to think that a war with Iran is legit self-defence. You see, those tankers were carrying oil for Uncle land. Someone must have fancied that since Scrooge is ‘Scrooge’ – a hoarder, more than an investor – he prefers backyard barbecue party over coffee at Mt Everest. Blowing up two tankers meant for Scrooge’s cars and factories could get him to sit up and notice. A continuation of incidents like these could well force Scrooge’s hand; finally get them ‘their war’.

Someone has blown some Saudi pipeline with a drone as we speak. So.

Then again, Scrooge has managed to surprise us an amazing number of times in the past, especially when it comes to staying away from military entanglements. He is a guy who is happy selling guns as the Arabs, the Sub-Saharans and other tribal Africans continued shooting each other and paid him for it. But getting his boys killed in alien battlefields: that’s something that he would avoid till absolutely necessary.

So, there you have it. Just selling arms as a business, versus selling AND personally destabilizing foreign lands as a business. Wait and watch how this gets handled. And though it is kinda stupid of me to expect, but those asshats in Uncle land might do well to hold on a bit. I will tell you why.

You see, there was a recent meeting between the foreign advisor to Putin and a lady from the National Security Council from the White House. The emphasis was Venezuela: media said nothing is more important right now. Why? Because Scrooge wants a civil transition. And he had reasonable progress made with the Russians and the Chinese the last time I wrote about this. But… those asshats wanted a war. So, seeing civil behaviour being dispensed across both sides of the table – one that actually had the potential to settle things down, they quickly tried to mount a coup. In April. That failed. Because they are asswipes; they lack the intelligence to plan and execute that very thing that they are charging their clients for. [Makes you miss the Cold War brilliance, doesn’t it?].

But this attempt sure screwed up Scrooge’s gains. [There is an angle to this; I will give that to you in two minutes.]

Why might they gain if they stop being champ-retards, even temporarily? Because to Moscow, it doesn’t matter much. It was a good relationship when Chavez was alive and when he had the money to buy this and that from them to sort of balance Uncle-influence; not anymore. This could be more of Moscow’s way of reaching out to Uncle to show what it means to meddle in a different hemisphere. Make no mistake: neither are they investing, nor they have the intent. If Uncle wants to create a big black hole in his ‘backyard’, this is one region that Kermlin would happily play along. Dirt cheap.

A civil transition on the other hand, and some power sharing, might be good, not just for the local stakeholders, but also for the oil guys that are salivating at those Venezuelan wells. That would get them that chance to finally claim a piece. Scrooge definitely wants that. I am pretty sure the asswipes want that too. Scrooge has an election to win; those retards have more money to pry out of their clients. But considering their IQ, and that Scrooge is far better at doing his job, they should just sit tight and let him play. Then claim their balance payment once the game’s done and the oil tankers breeze in and out. They really should sit tight.   

Two minutes angle: Yes. only if they have the additional mandate to undermine Scrooge, in order to help get a democrat win 2020, then they have a point. [Even then they are pretty clumsy]

Russia and China? Well folks… this is an elaborate domestic Scrooge-versus-deep-state squabble being played out in Uncle’s backyard. Russia China etc really don’t matter here.

 

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